Oil import and export quotas are issued loosely and tightly

The Ministry of Commerce recently issued the second batch of non-state-owned crude oil import allowance in 2023, with a total quota of 111.82 million tons. So far, the first two batches have issued a total of 131.82 million tons, down 18.5% compared with the first two batches last year.

The data shows that the total amount of the first two batches of traditional refining and private refining and chemical integration projects this year has decreased compared with the same period of last year. In terms of traditional refining, under the continuous promotion of the conversion of old and new kinetic energy, a total of 26.96 million tons of backward production capacity has been eliminated in the past three years, and the quota of imported crude oil has been reduced by 13 million tons, accounting for 71% in 2020 to 56% this year. As the traditional refining capacity tends to be stable, there is limited room for the reduction of imported crude oil quotas in the future; In terms of private refining and chemical integration projects, Zhejiang Petrochemical and Shenghong have only issued 50% except Hengli, and there is still about 29 million tons of incremental space in the second half of the year, so the proportion of private large refining and chemical enterprises is still expected to rebound slightly in the later period.

"From the perspective of distribution ratio, after the first two batches of imported crude oil quotas landed in 2023, although the overall distribution ratio decreased slightly compared with the same period of last year, the general trend basically conformed to the previous law." Jin Lianchuang fuel oil analyst Zhou Mi said.

Zhou Mi pointed out that on the whole, after the change of old and new production capacity in previous years, there are still some new changes in the distribution trend of imported crude oil quotas this year. "For example, the traditional refining tends to be stable, and the growth rate of private large refining and chemical enterprises slows down, and the proportion of the two remains at the level of 64 points. In the next 1-2 years, after the Yulong Island project in Shandong Province is fully put into production, the private large refining and chemical echelon is still expected to gain 10 million tons of quota appreciation. At that time, four private large refining and chemical enterprises will gain nearly 100 million tons of crude oil quota, while the total amount of traditional refining will stabilize, but the market share will decline again. "

While the quota of imported crude oil has been tightened, the export quota of refined oil has increased substantially. This year, the first batch of export quotas totaled 18.99 million tons, up 5.99 million tons year-on-year. Compared with the same period of last year, various export entities also increased to varying degrees. Compared with the period when export policies were tightened vigorously in the early 14 th Five-Year Plan, they have recently tended to relax. The quota of imported crude oil and the export quota of refined oil also showed a loose and tight overall.

Under the requirement of "double carbon" target, the adjustment of refining industry has been deepened since the "14 th Five-Year Plan". At the same time, the global epidemic situation is grim in 2020-2021, which leads to shrinking external demand. Under the influence of multiple factors, refined oil export quotas bid farewell to positive growth.

The data shows that in 2021, the export quota dropped sharply, with a drop of over 30%. In 2022, the export policy was tightened before it was loosened, and the tightening trend was also maintained in the first three quarters. The decline in the first to third batches was further expanded to 40%. At the end of 2022, considering the factors such as improving the economy, stabilizing foreign trade and adjusting the weak domestic demand in the epidemic, the Ministry of Commerce concentrated on adding two batches of quotas, and the last batch was large. After the substantial increase, the total amount was basically the same as that in 2021, with a slight decrease of 0.9% year-on-year.

"Although the export quota still declined slightly in 2022, it can be seen that the degree of policy tightening has slowed down. Entering 2023, it continued the trend in the fourth quarter of last year to a certain extent, and the first batch of quotas rose by nearly 50% year-on-year, which also verified this. " Xu Peng, an analyst of Jinlianchuang refined oil products, said that due to the great changes in the batches and quantities of quotas issued in the past two years, there is great uncertainty in the annual quantity.

Xu Peng predicted that according to the principle of keeping the original export reduction policy unchanged during the "14th Five-Year Plan" period and the trend of moderately relaxing the austerity, the annual quota this year will not be higher than 37.25 million tons in 2022, and the total amount issued will be close to 37 million tons. "If stabilizing foreign trade is still an important starting point, the possibility of further relaxing exports will not be ruled out, and it is expected to exceed the 2022 level by then. Based on the two possibilities, it is assumed that the range of quota indicators in 2023 will be in the range of 37-40 million tons, and there will be 18-20 million tons of quotas in the later period. " Xu Peng pointed out.

According to industry insiders, from the perspective of the whole year, Jieyang and Shenghong two refineries have been officially put into operation this year. According to the stable load, it is estimated that they will contribute about 13 million tons of refined oil resources to 2023. At the same time, the international crude oil is separated from the high oil price, and the impact of the superimposed epidemic situation is obviously reduced. The operation of domestic oil companies is expected to return to stability, and the overall load will rebound with high probability, further driving the output growth.

Xu Peng believes that with the introduction of economic optimization policies, 2023 is expected to be the year of recovery after the epidemic, but compared with the output of refined oil, the recovery speed and degree may be less than that. Export is expected to adjust domestic fundamental contradictions, help export oil enterprises create efficiency and increase income, and at the same time have a positive adjustment effect on the domestic oil market.